Prostate cancer data update: numbers and sources
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| The rise of prostate cancer in the UK from April 2020 to October 2024 |
As a public health issue, prostate cancer (PCa), is now comparable in scale to breast cancer (BCa). By some key numerical measures PCa has now overtaken BCa, for example in terms of UK deaths, recent UK diagnoses, and projected US new cases.
I'm not pointing this out to diminish breast cancer, but to put prostate cancer in perspective. In most countries, PCa has become a major national cancer problem warranting a focus on screening, detection, treatment, patient and partner support, and research into cure and prvention.
You can see the dramatic rise in the number of prostate cancer patients being treated in the UK since 2000 in chart at the top of this post. This is from the UK publication Urology News. (Sources for the statistics in this article are listed in the final section: Prostate Cancer Data Sources).
Prostate Cancer (PCa) in the US
The American Cancer Society has projected 333,830 new prostate cancer cases in 2026, making it the single largest named cancer category in its table of estimated new cancers. That is slightly higher than 324,580 breast cancer cases when female and male breast cancer are counted together.
It's important to note that in terms of projected deaths, breast cancer (BCa), remains higher in the US: (42,670 versus 36,320 deaths in 2026). An accurate statement of the situation would be: prostate cancer is now numerically bigger in the US than breast cancer in terms of projected new diagnoses, but not deaths.
To put the scale of PCa in context we can look at population rates. The US National Cancer Institute’s SEER data put prostate cancer at 123.2 new cases per 100,000 men per year, with a death rate of 18.9 per 100,000 men, based on recent incidence and mortality periods. Female breast cancer is still slightly higher at 132.5 new cases per 100,000 women, with the same reported death rate of 18.9 per 100,000 women.
The UK PCa picture
In the UK, the organization Cancer Research UK projects 57,900 new prostate cancer cases per year, or roughly 160 diagnoses a day, using 2019 and 2021–2022 data. Prostate cancer accounts for 14% of all new UK cancer cases and is the most common cancer in men, representing 28% of new male cancer cases.
The UK incidence of PCa has risen sharply over the longer term: CRUK reports that incidence rates in males have increased by 54% since the early 1990s, and are projected to rise a further 14% between 2024–2026 and 2038–2040, reaching about 85,100 new cases a year by 2038–2040.
The UK breast cancer comparison is striking but slightly time-sensitive. CRUK’s consolidated figures still list breast cancer at about 59,400 new cases per year, just above the prostate figure in that dataset. But Prostate Cancer UK, citing the latest NHS figures, reported in January 2026 that UK prostate cancer diagnoses rose from just under 52,000 in 2021 to more than 64,000 in 2022, a 24% increase, making prostate cancer more commonly diagnosed than breast cancer.
On mortality, the UK comparison is already clearer. CRUK reports around 12,300 prostate cancer deaths per year, compared with around 11,200 breast cancer deaths. Prostate cancer is the third most common cause of cancer death in the UK overall and the second most common cause of cancer death in men. Breast cancer remains the second most common cause of cancer death in women, but numerically, prostate cancer now causes slightly more UK deaths each year.
Beyond the numbers
Prostate Cancer Data Sources
The numbers cited above come from the general and specific sources listed and linked below. These were found using a chatbot (GPT-5.5 Thinking). I have not checked all of them yet — did I mention that I'm undergoing cancer treatment that makes me tired? I suggest care and caution if using these references in your own work or sharing them with others who might not include similar disclaimers.
