Nostalgia Moment: The Deux Chevaux

Just had to Google "Deux Chevaux" after mentioning it in the last post about the Jeep Liberty roll-back roof. Found this great picture at Seattle-based 2CVs R Us, which seems to be the place to turn for this marque in the US.

These folks specialize in repair and restoration of Citroen 2CV and have many Deux Chevaux (French spelling) for sale. At the website you will find "plenty of information about 2CV's in general, repair and maintenance instructions, spare part supply, a very informative 2CV buyer's guide that tells you what to look for when you plan to purchase a 2CV and a complete online 2CV Users Manual." BTW, the fine example shown here is apparently located in New York state and up for sale. If you are interested, you might want to email cars at 2cvsrus dot com and ask for details of the "Stunning yellow and black 2CV Charleston."

[Many thanks to alert reader Christine who very rightly pointed out that the original post was incorrectly titled Deux Cheveux--after laughing along with Christine for some time, I have now corrected it.]

Whoa! Where Did March Go? Through the Jeep roof maybe?

Time flies when you're traveling (to the UK and back since the last post--nice little London hotel review to follow, plus my latest tips on coping with airline security--hint: you can only carry one bag onto a plane flying out of London, repeat one bag, not a roll-on plus computer, one bag, regardless of cabin class or carrier).

And how the wind flies in the Springtime when you're having fun in an open top vehicle. My wife loved her Mercedes SL 500 and her SLKs, the 230 and then the 320. I loved to be driven in them, top up or down. But alas no room for the dog. Poor doggy (and sometimes Stephen when the doggy took precedence).

Now stable-mate Jeep comes to the rescue. The latest iteration of the Jeep Liberty is to offer something a friend of mine has sought for years: a roll-back roof (as described at the autoblog).

"One of the most-talked about options [on the '08 Liberty) will be the power-operated sliding roof, called Sky Slider. While most automakers offer a sunroof, the Liberty's canvas roof runs nearly the length of the vehicle. It can be opened from front to back or from back to front."

Not that this is new--anyone familiar with French autos knows they have long sported variations on this idea, back as far as the Citreon Deux Cheveux at least. However, none of them are over here, and none of them are in a serious off-road/around-town vehicle like the Liberty (disclaimer: we own a 2005 Jeep Liberty Diesel that we like quite a lot).

My friend's wish was for a rugged vehicle able to accommodate wife and two kids in comfort and tour around with the roof open. The 2008 Liberty with the Sky Slider looks to be about the only contender in that category.
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Publish or be Published: Part V

So, how do you go about putting out a book? Let's assume you have a manuscript. You need to get it typeset in a form that can be sent to printer and printed. You also need to think about where you are going to put the books once they are printed. At the same time you need to be thinking about the channels you are going to use to sell your book. It might seem backward but we will discuss the last of these items first: Where to sell?

How about "the world's biggest book store" which is amazon.com? There is a fairly simple way for independent publishers--which includes you as an author who has published your own book—to sell through Amazon. It is called the Advantage program and you can read all about it here, but the following is the bit you want to know right now:

There is an annual fee of $29.95 to be a member of Advantage. Your fee includes unlimited title enrollment, access to our Vendor Services team, and access to the Vendor web site to manage your account. The standard terms for Advantage vendors is 55% - you keep 45% of the List Price. That means that Amazon.com is entitled to 55% of the List Price for each unit that sells. You, the vendor, receive 45% of the List Price. You set the List Price, also known as Suggested Retail Price, of your products, and all payments made to you are calculated based on the List Price. If Amazon.com decides to further reduce the sales price to the customer below the List Price, the customer discount comes out of Amazon.com's percentage. For example, if the List Price is $39.95, you will make $17.98 from each copy sold, even if the Customer Price or Our Price on Amazon.com is discounted from the List Price.

Now, I don't know what kind of book you are going to publish, but if you are going to give it a list price of $39.95 it had better be very special. Don't think you can game the Amazon system by listing a high cover price and expecting Amazon to discount it. You don't control their discounting. (I will give you an example in the next posting.)

Let's say you are looking at a 240 page trade paperback in the 6x9 inch size range. You can probably get these printed for $2.00 each. A realistic cover price for this might be $22.95 which gives you $10 and change for your 45% cut, less $2.00 printing costs. But PLEASE don't make the classic mistake of thinking "Great, if I can sell just 2,000 copies through Amazon I will make $16,000, which is twice what I was going to get as an advance from McGraw-Hill."

First of all, the books for which Amazon pays you $10 have got to get to Amazon and won't earn you a dime until they sell. Herein lies perhaps the biggest secret of publishing: books are HEAVY. That means shipping is going to be a big factor in the profitability of your publishing venture. Consider these numbers:

It will cost $4.05 to ship your 240 page 6x9 book via Priority rate for 2 day delivery within the US. Parcel Post runs $3.95 for 5 days but is probably not worth it since Bound Printed Matter rate is $2.15 for about the same speed. Slightly slower but a relative bargain is Media Mail (Book Rate) for $1.59. Compare that to the cost of printing the book. If you do a large print run you can probably get the cost of your book down to around the cost of sending it somewhere via Media Mail.

But surely your customers will pay shipping?

Yes, they will pay to get the book from Amazon, but you have to get the book to Amazon (or another other distribution point—for example, to your garage from the printer, or from your garage to a friend who has a book store that you can't get to by car). For an idea of bulk shipping costs, check this chart of UPS prices.

BTW, I have found UPS is the way to go with books. They are more reliable and do less damage than other carriers I have tried. So, these are current UPS rates for a book of 40. As you can see, 2-day is more than $2 per book. Regular 5-day is about 62 cents per book.

In my experience Amazon is unlikely to give you a chance to ship in bulk. They will order two or three copies at a time. A lightweight mailer for one or two books will cost about 50 cents. So your cost before the book gets to Amazon could be $4.71 (printing cost + shipping to you + shipping to them + mailer to ship in = $2.00, 0.62 + 1.59 + 0.50 = $4.71). That means one sale at Amazon may only net you $5.30 versus the gross figure of $10.00. And that means you have to move more like 2,000 copies to get a return greater than the $10,000 advance you might have received from a mainstream publisher. And you are fronting the costs and taking the risk. Nevertheless, it may be worth it.

Next posting we will talk about some alternatives to Amazon and how to move 2,000 books in a hurry.
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Publish or be Published: Part Four

Being a best seller...in perspective:

Technically, I did write a "best-seller" once. It was about how to use a particular piece of software and it sold fast enough to make Number One on the list of record at that time for computer books. So, it was, briefly, the number one selling computer book. I think total sales for that book were 80,000 copies over the first 6 or 7 months. I have had several successful 'literary' writers tell me they have never had a book sell that well. Of course, you can sell screen rights to a literary work a lot easier than you can for a software guide.

Speaking of sales, something to bear in mind, whether you publish yourself or get published, is that books have a somewhat unique place in the retail market because they are shipped to book sellers on a "sale or return" basis. A book store is allowed to return unsold books for full credit. If 10,000 copies of your book ship out in the first six months of publication, 3,000 could come back in the second six months.

While the publisher is going to count initial 'sales' against the advance they may hold some money in reserve in case your books come back. BTW, the publisher will likely want to give you just two statements per year. Insist on quarterly. Even that will mean you won't see any money over and above the advance for some time after publication, IF the book sells well.

How well a book sells is often determined by how many people know the book exists and that is often determined by how much effort the book's publisher--either the publishing company or you if you self-publish—puts behind the book. Publishing operates on small margins and is known for high staff turnover. A not uncommon phenomenon is for the editor who signed up your book to have 'moved on' before it comes to market, or for the publisher to have shifted focus. The enthusiasm you saw when they presented you with the contract has ebbed and although your book is in their catalogue there is nobody 'pushing' it to the big chains and reviewers. Alternatively, the big chains were eager at the outset but now have lost interest.

These are some of the factors that are beyond your control when you sign with a publisher. At least if you know about them you can plan to counter them. Don't bask too long in the glow of signing the contract. Deliver the manuscript as fast as you can and keep in touch with your editor to maintain the buzz.

By now you might be wondering why you would even bother with a major publisher. I know I found myself wondering and I have tried self-publishing. But in fact, there are several very good reasons to publish a book with a major publisher. First is the "authority" factor. Not sure if authority is the best word for it, but what I mean is: You come across as more of an authority, more likely to be accepted as the real deal, if your book is published by a big name publisher or a publisher who is respected in your field, whether it is animal behavior or literary fiction.

Second, publishing with an established publisher, particularly for a first book, is a great way to learn the ropes. What is good copy editing and how cruel does it need to be? What is stacking? What's a galley proof and what can you do with it? So, doing your first book with a big publisher is actually a good fit. You get the credibility and you learn a bunch of stuff that will come in handy if you decide to self-publish later.

Notice I said "good reasons to publish 'a' book with a major publisher." You might find that one is enough with a big publisher. Or you may decide you just want to go ahead and get on with putting out a book.

Publish or be Published: Part Trois

So, by now you're probably chomping at the bit for some examples of how the numbers work in publisher. A traditional publisher may offer a royalty that is somewhere from 10% to 15% of the net price. The net price is what the publisher gets for the book. The publisher sells the book at a discount to bookstores. This varies and used to be about 40% but domination by just a few big book chains has forced it closer to 50%. That means if the price on the cover is $20 you may get 10% of $10 or $1 per book. You might get as much as 15% of $12, which is $1.80 but I wouldn't count on it. Remember that royalties on foreign sales are likely to be half of domestic and book club sales are often at a special discount (all of these things are technically negotiable but it might be hard to get a publisher to budge from their standard terms).

Now, a publisher may well be happy with a first run of 6,000 to 7,000 copies that sells close to that number. So an advance of around $10,000 is quite common. You may get a check for that on signing the contract or staged over the delivery of the manuscript (one third on sgning, one third at halfway, final third on final mnanuscript approval).

Now, I am pretty sure you can get on the New York Times Best Seller list with one week sales of 10,000 or more [but would be happy of someone could correct me or expand on that]. So a book that is a "best seller" may sell only 30,000 copies and I am under the impression that sales of that level for a literary novel are considered good. In that case the author may earn $40,000 or so. Not bad, but relate that to the time taken. A lawyer or other professional may well bill at $300 an hour or more. Earn $30,000 from a book and you are looking at less than three weeks of billable hours. And the publisher will likely tell you this is a very good outcome.

Publish or Be Published: Second Part of Several

Fortunately for authors, if a book goes to press and sales do not generate enough royalty to cover the advance, most publishers do not ask you to return the unearned portion. (If your experience has been different, I'd love to hear about it—heave a comment.)

Suppose Madonna gets a $1 million advance on her autobiography but sales are way less than the publisher expected (I know I am not going to buy a copy). Will Madonna have to hand any money back. No.

Bear in mind that I am talking about advances on books that actually go on sale. If you don't deliver a manuscript that meets the publisher's requirements [which are specified in the book contract, which was agreed between you and the publisher] then you may well be asked to return the royalty.

That said, it seems to be a point of honor among publishers not to ask for unearned royalties to be returned if they go through with publication (they figured the sales would be enough to cover it and so asking you for the unearned portion would be a loss of face). I must have written a dozen books that did not earn their advance and never had a request for a refund, so to speak. Some still sit on the publisher's ledger as negative balances.

And here is a lesson: If you are writing a book for money, never count on it earning more than the advance. You simply cannot afford to do that because you are not in charge of the publishing process. This is true however strongly you feel about the book's irresistible appeal to the masses. There is a lot you can do to promote your book. But there is a lot a publisher can neglect to market your book if they lose interest between signing that book contract and printing the first run. Certainly in the field of technical books, publishing houses seem happy to publish a lot of books with mediocre sales, waiting for a break through book to come along. So, write for the advance and the rest is glory or gravy.

To Publish or Be Published: First of several posts on being an author

A friend recently asked me about the benefits, if any, of self-publishing versus publishing. The scenario goes something like this: You have a book idea, or maybe even a manuscript, and you want the world to read it. What is the best way forward?

It is going to take quite a few posts to answer this, so before I get to it, you might wonder why my friend asked me. I have self-published and been published. I have had twenty-some books published by traditional publishers such as McGraw-Hill (the photo on the left is me as a much younger person, leaning on a stack of books I wrote--each one is a different title, although to be fair, some are foreign translations). These were technical books and most of them were commissioned. In other words, the publisher had already decided that a book about subject X was needed and I was asked to write it (this happens a lot more than many beginning non-fiction writers realize). A few of them were books where I suggested X, but I suggested a lot of X's that were not picked up by the publisher.

My "break-through" book was about a subject that was my idea, but the publisher only agreed reluctantly and really the book only happened through an odd set of circumstances. What do I mean by "break-through"? I don't mean best-seller. Relative to some of my books, sales were dismal. But the book established me as an expert in a field that has been good to me. I was able to leverage my "expert" status to make money and this is an important first lesson for anyone thinking of trying to publish a book: I have made a lot less money from book sales that I have from the status of being a published author. Furthermore, I can generalize this—I have several friends and acquaintances for whom this is also true. And that's okay. I'm not complaining. Although I have learned some harsh realities about publishers along the way.

So this is something for you to think about as we look at book business numbers: Why are you writing the book? Is it because you want/need to make money? Are you planning to make the money from the book sales? The work that being a published author may bring you? The screen rights? Are you writing the book to make a point, change the world, help others? My advice to everyone is to publish at least one book, but don't expect it to earn you a fortune. In fact, be prepared for it to loose money.

Really serious cash flow from book sales alone is unusual. Bear in mind that stories of a "six figure advance" for a book often involve a writer who is famous (or infamous). That advance is a sum of money paid to the author at some point before the book appears in print. It represents an advance on the book's earnings, known as royalties and the book may not actually earn that advance. In fact, some of the most talked about book big money deals don't earn the royalty that the author got in advance. So what happens? Check the next post, coming soon.

The Intuitive Interface Myth: Why computers aren't any easier to use than they used to be

Back in the early Post-Columbrian era I taught computer classes, hundreds of them. Four hours each, these classes covered: Computer Basics, Word Processing, Spreadsheets, and Operating System. After taking those classes you would know how to turn on a computer, create/save/print a document or spreadsheet, and make a backup copy of your work on removable media. You would also know the difference between memory and storage, RAM and ROM, and be able to answer qustions like "where does my work go wen the power goes out?"

Just 16 hours or two work days. Done and dusted. Or spend another four hours with me (or one of the dozen or so other trainers at our company) and you could build your own databases.

All of this without any "easy-to-use, intuitive graphical user interface." No hard-to-decipher icons, no tricky point-and-click devices, just simple taps on clearly labeled keys. Now, more than two decades later, a frightening number of office workers and home users have less clue about how to do their work and operate their computers than graduates of those archaic classes.

Why? The answer is going to be in some of my next postings. Meanwhile, consider this test. How easy and intuitive is A versus E? Twenty years ago option E was readily available and clearly labeled on the screen. Todays' screens are bigger, and have a lot more than two colors, but are applications any easier to use? I would argue No. Especially when if you want to talk about web apps, where almost every site has a different user interface (links are underlined, not underlined, underlined only on hover, colored differently, appear only when the arrow is over them, an icon not text, text not an icon, etc, etc).

I would hazard a guess that less than half of all people who use computers in their work today have received anything more than 4 hours of training on how to operate a computer. And that's a hazard, and accident waiting to happen, probably already happening if you dug a little deeper into the constant stream of security breaches being reported.
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The Morgan Hotel: A London Haven Savvy Travelers Should Know

Are you traveling to London? Are you appalled by how much stronger the British pound is than the American dollar? (Maybe that's how Bush managed to keep Blair on his side.) Are you generally gob-smacked by the queen's ransom demanded by London hotels? Read on for my review of a place in London you may come to love, and not just because the price is right.

Yes, for the sticker-shocked London visitor I might have something to soothe the nerves, a centrally-located London hotel that does not cost a fortune. Note "might." This is not the Mandarin Oriental Hyde Park (nothing under $400 a night) or even the Marriott County Hall (a relative bargain starting at $300 a night). I've stayed at both and, while I can assure you that both offer superb service, I can't say they offer three to four times the value of the Morgan Hotel, currently one of the top ranked establishments at the very useful Trip Advisor. And while the Marriott and Mandarin have their own charm and gravitas and history, so does the Morgan.

If you travel a lot you have probably figured out that a large element of hotel accommodation satisfaction rating is expectation management. Nowhere is this more true than in London, which offers a bewildering array of hotels, many of which charge exorbitant prices, and too many of which change hands more often than the English weather changes season.

So what you can expect from the Morgan, a small, independent, family-run hotel in the heart of London? Number one: A very clean room that is small but well-appointed and well-serviced by a polite and cheerful staff. The ambiance is closer to that of a bed and breakfast than a big hotel. If this sounds appealing then the Morgan is a bargain, particularly for individuals for whom hanging out in the hotel is not a big part of the trip, like me when traveling to London on business.

I probably wouldn't choose it for a honeymoon or a two week holiday with two kids in tow but it could be just the ticket if you're coming to London for a night or two at the theatre (and ideally located for such). I chose it for a calm retreat and good night's sleep at the end of a series of days spent visiting various client offices around London. I was not disappointed.

What else can you expect? You can expect a relatively quiet night's sleep. The hotel is in a terrace of what were once houses but now are mainly offices, backing onto small gardens that in turn back onto the British Museum. Rooms at the back of the hotel are well-insulated from the sounds of Bloomsbury Street, which itself is not terribly noisy (nothing like the same amount of rowdy late night pedestrian traffic you get in Convent Garden just a few blocks away--and very handy if you're up for some night life).

As with any hotel, noise in the rooms is relative to the number and demeanor of other guests (with the possible exception of the afore-mentioned Mandarin, probably the best insulated hotel I've experienced in Europe). I have certainly stayed in places that charge twice as much and have inferior sound insulation. Given the close proximity of the rooms at the Morgan, loutish guests or noisy early risers could be a problem, but I got the distinct impression that travelers who choose the Morgan are more than likely to be sensitive to its intimate ambiance and conduct themselves accordingly. (Conversely, I sense that some guests at more expensive hotels seem to think the queen's ransom they paid for a night's accommodation entitles them to be as loud as they like.)

Traveling alone, the size of the room, and bed, was fine (and a couple who are very much in love should do fine as well). The TV was very small, but I wasn't there to be entertained. I only turned it on once, probably because I get most of my news from the 'net these days. Tasteful use of shelving and recessed lighting made the best of the room space. A small table and chairs provided a comfy place to sit and relax, read, or surf the Internet via the free wireless connection. I have stayed in two different rooms (202 and 206) and the bathrooms in both were small and shower-only, no tub--but very clean and recently upgraded with modern fittings.

Soap and shampoo supplies were a bit basic but the towels were above average for a UK hotel (closer to good-old American cotton than traditional English sandpaper). Hair driers were installed in both rooms but no ironing board (I'm sure you could arrange the use of one if you wanted). There is individual room temperature control, including AC, a must for summer in London in the age of global warming. Of the two rooms, 206 was quieter.

As far as my needs went, location was great. The only other hotel nearby, actually right across the street, is the Radisson Kenilworth. A lovely hotel but 166% more expensive last time I checked. The nearest tube is a short walk and you can stroll right into Convent Garden or onto Oxford Street in minutes. There is a Starbucks about two blocks in one direction, and a Costas is just around the corner.

Finally, something very nice you can expect at the Morgan, and can depend on getting--if you get up before 9AM--is a fine English breakfast (cereal, juice, coffee/tea, toast, eggs, bacon, sausage, mushroom, tomato) dished up in a very smart dining room, cooked to order, and served with a smile. It was certainly a good way for me to start the day.

So there you have it, and if you don't like it, don't go there. But if you go there knowing and liking what you read here, you will probably be satisfied. That seems to be the trick of it, especially if you read Trip Advisor. Note that some people went to the Morgan with expectations that were not met. That was hardly the hotel's fault. Folk who follow Web 2.0 trends might have spotted this aspect of "customer review" sites. You don't 'know' the person doing the reviewing. You have to deduce their character from their articulation. Some reviews are really gripes and some are clearly unfair. On the other hand, if you read these reviews you can adjust your expectations and decide if a place if right for you.

And one final note for e-commerce analysts: This hotel ranks near the top of its class on a very popular travel site and it doesn't take online reservations. you have to use email, fax, or phone.

Wallhogs Rock: Where were you in the seventies?

What are Wallhogs and why do they rock? Read on gentle reader...

Recently I got an email from an enterprising young man I happen to know from a previous enterprise of my own, ePrivacy Group. His name is Kendall Schoenrock and he is one of those young people who were born to do business. I think he became a licensed real estate agent when he was 18 or something crazy like that. I know he still owns and maintains various residential and commercial properties. He worked a Budweiser delivery route in college, got his MBA from Villanova at an early age and, despite several other opportunities, chose to join, and invest in, ePrivacy Group. And this was at a time when it was the very definition of "a long shot."

When I watched him work ePrivacy Group's booth at ISPCON 2003 [I think it was that year] you could tell he was a natural pitch man, cheerfully engaging prospects in conversation, happily enthusing about a technology--SpamSquelcher--in which he believed [with good reason as it turns out, given that Symantec paid $28 million for it about a year later].

After selling SpamSquelchers for Symantec for a while [under the name TurnTide and later the Symantec 8100] Kendall struck out on his own and mucked around for a while seeking a fresh challenge. That's when he found Wallhogs.

Wallhogs are basically big plastic pictures you can put on a wall then later peel off and put on a different wall, as in dorm room wall, apartment wall, office wall. Check them out at wallhogs.com.

A variety of images are already available from which to choose, but one of the coolest features of the site is the ability to upload your own image and have it not only blown up, but cropped. So your photo of young Timmy making that great catch in softball can be cropped to just Timmy, then printed five feet tall if you like (presumably with some clever interpolation algorithm).

Of course, the basic technology of "apply to wall then remove and apply to some other wall" is also very cool. I could have used this back in the day when I was at university. I had about half a dozen posters that got moved from flat to flat in Leeds, serious expressions of my personally at the time, which got tattered at the corners from frequent application and removal of tape. Whether you want a blissful four foot wide sunset above your bed, or a funky art photo above your sink, Wallhogs has you covered. Even if you have to switch dorm rooms in a hurry.
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